Έχω την τύχη να διαβάζω κάθε εβδομάδα τις «εσωτερικές» αναλύσεις που κάνει ο Steve Rubel για το δικτυο της Edelman, της οποίας ο Rubel είναι στέλεχος και την οποία η εταιρεία μου εκπροσωπεί στην Ελλάδα.
Η τοποθέτηση του μου δίνει και κάποια «πατήματα» για την αίσθηση που εκφράζω κατά καιρούς για το Twitter: είναι -έλεγα- ενδιάμεση πλατφόρμα, πολύ σέξι μεν, αλλά θα «χαίρεται»μέχρι να βρεθεί η επόμενη. Ο Steve Rubel, βεβαίως, δεν μένει στην αίσθηση, αλλά μας δίνει βάσεις για να ξέρουμε πού «ακουμπάμε» κάθε μέρα…
What Might Be in Store for the "Big Three"
Curated by Steve Rubel, SVP/Director of Insights
When I grew up in the 1970s there were three big networks in the US that dominated the media landscape - ABC, NBC and CBS. Later, in the 1990s, the big three became AOL, Yahoo and MSN.
Today a triumvirate is forming around Google, Facebook and Twitter. Here's a look at what might be in store for these leaders in the year ahead. (Keep in mind this is one person's curated view and it's very easy to be wrong.)
As it stands today, Google and Facebook seem unstoppable. This is primarily because both leverage data in powerful ways that make their core experience and advertising services stronger, more personalized and more relevant every day - which isn't the case for Twitter, which is in no rush to earn revenues during what may be its peak hour.
Google dominates "pull." When we want information, we Google it and the search engine quickly returns results that are highly relevant and increasingly tailored to our interests. Personalization was previously only available to account holders, but that all changed last week when Google made it available to all (http://j.mp/72IsF0).
If Google has an Achilles Heel, however, it's that, other than YouTube, it's not social. While the company has million of loyal Gmail users, they've yet to unlock this asset in ways that makes their core search experience stronger. They're trying with betas (http://j.mp/5UN2Dg), but social is not Google's forte.
Facebook, meanwhile, is dominating in "push." Using our social circle it seems to surface content that we care about just when we want it. As more people use Facebook to connect, share and create, a network effect takes over - and the system and its ads get even smarter.
In 2010 watch for Facebook to continue to push the envelope with new features that make the content and ads even smarter, more targeted and more "just-in-time." Facebook will also try to branch out into Google's turf by building out its nascent search feature but it's unlikely they will be as effective.
That leaves Twitter. While Twitter right now is all the rage in the press, in some ways it sits between Google (pull) and Facebook (push) and is trying to find a foothold. However, I believe that once consumers find alternatives they could tire of Twitter and go somewhere else. However, none has emerged yet.
For the moment, I expect Twitter's profile and traffic to remain status quo (and therefore important to clients) until a viable alternative emerges. Some industry watchers I have met in recent weeks believe that they will likely be acquired by either Google or Facebook once a price can be agreed upon. My bet is on Google to buy Twitter since it can give it the social play it needs to keep up with Facebook.